How to Predict Placements with Certainty—Even in a Slump

May 9, 2025 | Metrics for Running a Successful Recruiting Firm

QUESTION: An individual asked me, “Mike, it has been 4 months since my last placement. What am I doing wrong?” My response was this…

Tracking Placement Ratios for Better Recruiting Results

There are a thousand possibilities of what one could be doing wrong. I said,” I am unsure because I do not know if you counted how many first-time interviews you have arranged since your last placement.” He said 41. I also asked him if he knew historically how many first-time interviews it took him to make a placement. He said between 6 and 7. I always go more conservative, so let’s say 7. No disrespect, this is an opportunity for growth, to know exactly, specifically, and precisely what that number is, to be able to say 6.54. That is what our clients can do.

This is a relatively simplistic answer without any other diagnosis. It is almost like when you’re calling Frasier, and he is trying to give psychological advice. I would look at many things, but if your traditional ratio is 7:1, you are due for 6 placements. 7 times 6 is 42. His average fee was $24,000. It is challenging for people to fathom that. I have seen it for myself. It has happened to me on a couple of occasions in my career. The worst slump I ever had was 54 interviews without a placement. I have had clients go into the 30s, even the low 40s for first-time interviews to a placement.

Stories of Success Through Metrics

We had an office a couple of years ago, so a team of like 8 or 9 people, and this was the end of the first quarter at one of our in-person masterminds. The lead partner got up and said we have arranged 90-something interviews – I forgot the exact number. This was in like Q1 – I forgot which year it was – but in January or February, over a 3-month period, we have arranged 90-some odd interviews, and we have 2 placements. Their ratio was 7:1 at the time.

I did the math – and I forgot what it was – 93, so 13 or 14 placements was probably what their metrics told them they should have revenue-wise, and they had 2 placements. You are due for 12 placements. Mike, it cannot be that simple. It cannot be that simple. It cannot be that simple.

We did some quick diagnostics because we had the time, and we were in the place to make sure, from a process standpoint, they had things lined up. Everything was good. I got an email from the other partner, the individual’s wife, a few weeks later to let me know that I was not incorrect. That was the best way to put it, that I was not incorrect. They made a dozen placements in 3 weeks.

The Role of Patience and Persistence

It does not always right itself that quickly. However, I have never seen it not happen. I have never seen it not catch up. Again, this was a couple of years ago – their ratio historically was 7:1. With that horrible first quarter at a 45 to 48 interview to placement ratio for that first quarter, they finished the year at 6. Not only did they catch up, but they also improved their KPI going forward. That is how this business is sometimes. You go through an un-self-imposed drought.

That is why I wanted to email him, because if he said it has been 3 or 4 months since his last placement and he’s arranged two interviews, I am like, you’re not talking to enough people. I have had clients, I can’t tell you, over the years, clients that have worked with me for years that understand this well. They will call me up and say things like: Mike, I know I’m due. You will tell me I’m due, but walk me off the ledge. I’ll be like, okay.

Slumps are personal. We deny them, feel embarrassed by them, and wait too long to ask for help. In this episode of The Recruiting Coaches’ Corner, we get real. Scott opens up about his recent slump—his fears, mindset, and how he turned it around, Danny shares how every recruiter faces slumps, and Mike offers a metrics-based plan to keep them short and manageable.

Regression to the Mean in Recruiting

I remember one individual had 36 interviews since his last placement. His ratio was 6:1. I go, you are due for 6 deals. I think his average deal size was $22,000, so $130,000. He goes, “Mike, it is just like my hot sheet is dead. I have got nothing going on.” I’m like, “It’s not from what you have going on. The business owes 6 placements. You have to continue to arrange interviews. This business is always regression to the mean. It is going to catch up. It is going to catch up.”

I talked to him a few months later and tracked with him a little. He did not want to talk to me because he loved and hated that he made 7 placements in about a month or 6 weeks and had a couple of offers out.

Why Metrics Always Catch Up

Why do I go to this? I have several other stories. Every one of them, 100% of the time, the person caught up to their former ratios. On the flip side, you must be ready because I would do this managing my firm when I look at my clients’ numbers. Just as you can get behind the numbers, you can get ahead of the numbers, meaning you have had a ratio of 6:1. You arrange 20 interviews and make 6 placements. That happens too. Your ratio comes down for a short period. Now, you might go into a trough because, again, there is regression to the mean either way.

What I would say to you is, if you are working with good clients and they are decent assignments, and the quality of the assignments is just like the ones you worked on when your ratio was 7:1, as hard as it is to go a bunch of months without a placement, have faith in the fact that through the hundreds of recruiters I have worked with, in my own firm and as our clients, I have never seen someone that was in a slump for some time with several interviews not catch up. It never happened. It never happened.

P.S. Whenever you’re ready… here are 4 ways I can help you grow your recruitment business:

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4. Work with me and my team privately

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